谈球吧体育市场至少每年都经历一次大幅回调，每十年一次巨幅回调。习惯它吧。它们就是这样的。

　　3. There is virtually no accountability in the financial pundit arena. People who have been wrong about everything for years still draw crowds.

　　在金融专家这个圈子里，几乎没有任何问责。有些人多年来对所有事情都判断错了，却依然吸引着不少人群。

　　4. There are tens of thousands of professional money managers. Statistically, a handful of them have been successful by pure chance. Which ones? I dont know, but I bet a few are famous.

　　我们有数以万计的职业基金经理。从统计上看，他们中有一小部分人获得成功完全靠的运气。哪些人？我不知道，但我敢打赌有些挺出名的。

　　5. The more comfortable an investment feels, the more likely you are to be slaughtered.

　　7. The more someone is on TV, the less likely his or her predictions are to come true. (U.C. Berkeley psychologist Phil Tetlock has data on this).

　　一个人上电视越多，他或她的预言成真的可能性就越小。（加州大学伯克利分校的心理学家Phil Teltlock有这方面的数据。）

　　9. Twenty years from now the S&P 500 will look nothing like it does today. Companies die and new ones emerge.

　　二十年之后标普500指数将与今天看起来完全不同。公司总会消亡，而新的公司总会浮现。

　　10. Twelve years ago General Motors was on top of the world and Apple was laughed at. A similar shift will occur over the next decade, but no one knows to what companies.

　　十二年前，通用汽车正处于世界之巅，而苹果被人嘲笑。未来十年会有类似的转变发生，但没人知道将发生在哪家公司谈球吧体育。

　　12. Remember what Buffett says about progress: First come the innovators, then come the imitators, then come the idiots.

　　记住巴菲特说的关于进步：“首先来的是创新者谈球吧体育，然后来的是模仿者，最后来的是白痴。”

　　13. And what Mark Twain says about truth: A lie can travel halfway around the world while truth is putting on its shoes.

　　14. And what Marty Whitman says about information: Rarely do more than three or four variables really count. Everything else is noise.

　　还有Marty Whitman说的关于信息：“真正重要的变量很少超过三四个。其他一切都是噪音。”

　　15. The most boring companies -- toothpaste, food, bolts -- can make some of the best long-term investments. The most innovative, some of the worst.